Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9791…520c crypto 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (588 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%244W / 449L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day587.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$21
other 8% −$3
sports 5% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (588 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 693 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 693 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 25% -10.6%
≤90d 693 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 25% -10.6%
all 693 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover587.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 25% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 20% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 16% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses244 / 449
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)693 / 697
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day587.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 0¢ 62¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 0¢ 38¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 63¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? No 92¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$52 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$30 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $81 +$63 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$50 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$19 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$3 -38%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $14 +$6 +39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $100 −$44 -44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$4 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $13 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $69 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.59 · official $23.18 (match) · 2510 history records