Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
97 0x978f…e14d sports 1135 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$592 (-5%) realized −$570 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%670W / 463L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day84.7pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$216
14 days+$38
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$317
other 6% −$68
world 0% −$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 +7.7% -2.6% 60% 58% -5.2%
≤30d 1006 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 59% -11.9%
≤90d 1133 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 58% -12.5%
all 1133 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 58% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 58% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 46% -20.9%
15% -27.1% 30% -28.5%
20% -34.3% 20% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$570
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses670 / 463
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1133 / 1135
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day84.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Carlo Alberto Caniato 56¢ 46¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 76¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 83¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 68¢ 16¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-77%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Michael Zhu 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 70¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Shymkent 2: Edas Butvilas vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $15 +$10 +66%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$7 -67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$30 +241%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $23 +$77 +334%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $12 +$13 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -42%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$3 -4%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 +$33 +140%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$9 +62%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $15 +$13 +89%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$14 -54%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 83¢ $5 27m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 59¢ $5 29m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 76¢ $5 36m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 76¢ $5 36m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 99¢ $7 40m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 48¢ $5 42m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 51¢ $5 47m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 68¢ $2 51m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 68¢ $3 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 69¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $12 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $6 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $7 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Michael Zhu 24¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire SELL Michele Ribecai 99¢ $7 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 82¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 40¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 68¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 54¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 68¢ $3 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 70¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 42¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 76¢ $5 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 81¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 88¢ $5 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 69¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 3500 history records