Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x978d…f975 weather 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$142 (+1%) realized +$148 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%153W / 109L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$31
14 days−$18
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$35
crypto 48% +$32
other 1% −$20
sports 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.1% -16.0% 46% 31% -14.6%
≤30d 136 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 30% -11.9%
≤90d 262 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 25% -8.9%
all 262 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 25% -8.9%
10% -23.7% 16% -17.6%
15% -31.1% 15% -25.6%
20% -37.8% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses153 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)262 / 269
History coverage58d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Yes 52¢ 61¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Yes 44¢ 47¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$5 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$7 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$14 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$7 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $29 10h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 31h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.70 · official $83.70 (match) · 716 history records