Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x978a…6fb7 crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$8 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%104W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$15
other 18% −$14
finance 7% +$18
world 5% −$5
politics 3% +$12
sports 2% −$1
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 36% -2.8%
≤90d 42 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 29% -6.8%
all 130 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 18% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses104 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)130 / 155
History coverage265d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 55¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 87¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $19 +$5 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 09 $1 $0 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$2 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 +$3 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +7%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $18 $0 -2%
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 27 $2 $0 +4%
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 27 $2 $0 +20%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $21 +$3 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $22 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $39 +$3 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $15 +$3 +16%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 02 $10 −$4 -43%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Jeff Criswell win the GA-14 special election? Apr 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 02 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $15 +$3 +19%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 +$10 +47%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $33 +$2 +8%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $4 $0 +7%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 26 $22 +$2 +11%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $33 +$4 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 09 $25 +$7 +28%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 54m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $48 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $49 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $48 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $49 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 15h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $6 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $12 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.28 · official $72.56 · 423 history records