Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9786…1e9a
crypto · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$237 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$119 · open −$78
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$306
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 6 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $143 $136 −$6 (-4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 42¢ 38¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand New Zealand 59¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $109 +$15 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $116 −$84 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$115 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$17 +331%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$53
sports 19% −$88
crypto 17% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 49m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 50m
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 42¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $125 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 42¢ $4 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 60¢ $81 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 39¢ $64 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 18¢ $31 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $109 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $46 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -27.2% -34.1% 39% 35% -29.6%
≤30d 23 -27.2% -34.1% 39% 35% -29.6%
≤90d 23 -27.2% -34.1% 39% 35% -29.6%
all 23 -27.2% -34.1% 39% 35% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 35% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 26% -36.3%
15% -46.2% 26% -42.5%
20% -51.5% 13% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.37 · official $306.38 (match) · 71 history records