Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9786…4c55 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20,814 (-27%) realized −$18,142 · open −$2,672
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,066per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$5,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,331
7 days−$25,430
14 days−$25,430
30 days−$25,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$18,813
crypto 13% −$9,289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -44.0%
≤30d 14 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -44.0%
≤90d 14 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -44.0%
all 14 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 43% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 43% -49.3%
15% -42.4% 43% -54.2%
20% -48.1% 36% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,409 vs −$4,986 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5,878
Realized−$18,142
Unrealized−$2,672
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5,066
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $8,550 $5,878 −$2,672 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,892 +$3,161 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,105 −$2,000 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,116 +$2,043 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $9,443 −$4,246 -45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7,674 −$7,674 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,240 +$1,701 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,549 +$1,699 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $10,105 −$10,105 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $6,571 −$6,571 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,216 +$2,649 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9,466 −$9,160 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,432 +$3,200 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,640 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,058 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,054 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,525 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $158 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,052 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,578 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,578 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $529 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,576 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $4,159 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,116 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,050 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,050 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,050 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,050 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,248 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $866 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $843 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $840 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $278 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $788 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,878.12 · official $5,878.12 (match) · 115 history records