Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9785…2419 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$825 (-68%) realized −$867 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$13
14 days−$90
30 days−$840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$795
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-85.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -64.2% -67.6% 20% 20% -15.2%
≤30d 11 -83.7% -85.3% 9% 9% -82.7%
≤90d 11 -83.7% -85.3% 9% 9% -82.7%
all 11 -83.7% -85.3% 9% 9% -82.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.3% 9% -82.7%
10% -86.7% 9% -84.4%
15% -88.0% 9% -85.9%
20% -89.2% 9% -87.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$93 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$867
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $48 $120 +$72 (+149%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-18%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $111 +$88 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $500 −$489 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $150 −$145 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 −$77 -97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 12m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $111 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $78 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $500 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $150 14d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $80 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.03 · official $181.03 (match) · 35 history records