Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9783…83b9 crypto 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,208 (+9%) realized +$5,208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%278W / 206L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 45% -2.3%
≤30d 73 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 45% -2.3%
≤90d 412 +1.7% -7.9% 51% 30% -9.2%
all 484 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 30% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 30% -8.6%
10% -16.8% 21% -17.3%
15% -24.8% 17% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$52 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses278 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 468
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions (196 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $246 −$246 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $236 −$236 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $245 −$245 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $334 +$119 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $243 +$84 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $504 +$1,087 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2,235 +$1,230 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $92 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$83 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$28 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2,073 +$1,124 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $505 +$796 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $147 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $239 +$189 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $272 +$76 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $117 −$113 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $317 +$208 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $172 +$33 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $454 +$295 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $195 −$187 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $56 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $56 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $19 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $57 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $32 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records