Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9783…264f weather 744 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$682 (+1%) realized +$608 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%680W / 32L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$84
14 days+$94
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$393
crypto 40% +$64
world 9% +$300
other 3% −$27
politics 1% +$26
culture 1% −$216
tech 0% +$15
finance 0% +$75
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 5% -7.5%
≤30d 415 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 537 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 4% -9.1%
all 712 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$56 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,223
Realized+$608
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses680 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions32
Markets (closed)712 / 744
History coverage210d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 43¢ 72¢ $116 $191 +$75 (+65%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$8 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 46¢ $88 $73 −$15 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? No 89¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? No 80¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? No 99¢ 93¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? No 98¢ 90¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? No 97¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? No 96¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 19 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $27 41m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,222.83 · official $1,222.83 (match) · 2166 history records