Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x977d…a3e0 world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$23
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$16
other 16% +$1
politics 13% +$6
sports 10% +$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 28% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 43 +56.7% +41.8% 30% 12% -9.7%
all 90 +27.0% +14.9% 36% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 7% -9.7%
10% +3.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -6.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -15.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage302d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $141 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $118 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $151 −$6 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $186 −$15 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -9%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $182 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $92 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $96 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $96 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $87 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $13 +$1 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $34 +$4 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $1,745 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $685 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $684 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $573 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $68 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $75 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $75 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $70 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $77 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $70 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $68 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $60 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $70 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $37.34 (match) · 319 history records