Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x977a…de7f world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$5
politics 18% −$1
other 16% $0
crypto 7% +$2
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.5% -5.4% 27% 18% -10.1%
≤30d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 14% -10.5%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 14% -10.5%
all 34 +1.0% -8.6% 15% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -9.9%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage311d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $77 −$5 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $38 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 13 $48 +$2 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $23 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records