Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
97 0x9776…d2ca other 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$172 (+5%) realized +$137 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%110W / 77L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$29
14 days+$17
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$175
sports 22% −$17
crypto 12% −$15
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.6% -6.3% 46% 42% +4.6%
≤30d 82 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 152 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 39% -4.8%
all 187 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 39% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 39% -4.1%
10% -19.4% 27% -13.3%
15% -27.2% 21% -21.6%
20% -34.3% 16% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses110 / 77
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions49
Markets (closed)187 / 237
History coverage125d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $160 $169 +$9 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $58 $72 +$13 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $33 +$9 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $11 −$2 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -61%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $5 +$9 +174%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +259%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 $0 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 05 $11 −$9 -82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$5 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 03 $12 +$17 +136%
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $51 −$8 -17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 −$11 -45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $11 +$12 +108%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $105 +$16 +15%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 30 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 +$5 +107%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4 $0 -3%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C May 25 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET May 25 $27 +$1 +2%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $7 −$5 -63%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 12m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 16m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $7 39m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 44m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 49m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 71¢ $1 52m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 53m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $24 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $3 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 77¢ $5 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $12 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 15h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 15h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 15h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 15h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 15h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 19h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.78 · official $826.84 (match) · 939 history records