Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9775…b70d
weather · 677 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$242 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$225 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses315 / 353
Open positions9
Markets (closed)668 / 677
History coverage53d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 668 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$235
14 days−$342
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? No 78¢ 92¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 62¢ 81¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$8 +142%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$244
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 31m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $16 50m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 52m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 75¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 79¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 79¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 73¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -23.8% -31.1% 30% 29% -36.6%
≤30d 502 -6.4% -15.4% 39% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 668 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 29% -13.2%
all 668 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 29% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 29% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 23% -21.5%
15% -29.3% 20% -29.1%
20% -36.2% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.63 · official $47.63 (match) · 1864 history records