Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9772…f05d world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$26
world 31% +$2
politics 16% −$9
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 2% -11.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -20.1%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage302d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $42 +$2 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $158 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 23 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $42 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $14 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $16 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records