Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9770…0ff5 sports 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,480 (-1%) realized −$32,316 · open +$11,836
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%165W / 220L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,690per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Fees−$26,569est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$76,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$166,151
other 5% −$19,316
world 0% −$5,495
crypto 0% −$420
tech 0% −$396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -66.7% -69.9% 17% 17% -66.5%
≤30d 283 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 42% -27.1%
≤90d 385 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 42% -28.0%
all 385 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 42% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 42% -28.0%
10% -26.9% 41% -34.9%
15% ← realistic here -34.0% 38% -41.2%
20% -40.4% 34% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$7,548) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,645 vs −$5,493 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$76,097
Realized−$32,316
Unrealized+$11,836
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses165 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$26,569
Open positions11
Markets (closed)385 / 349
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$5,690
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ 100¢ $6,446 $15,877 +$9,431 (+146%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $12,325 $12,471 +$146 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $8,360 $9,196 +$836 (+10%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ 100¢ $3,403 $8,746 +$5,342 (+157%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ 64¢ $6,678 $6,731 +$53 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 67¢ $7,100 $6,700 −$400 (-6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $4,743 $4,678 −$65 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 39¢ $6,675 $3,900 −$2,775 (-42%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 55¢ $3,186 $3,216 +$30 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 44¢ $3,036 $2,937 −$99 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 24¢ $2,308 $1,645 −$663 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $7,194 −$7,194 -100%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17,000 −$17,000 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) Jun 18 $7,148 −$7,148 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,962 −$1,962 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $3,771 −$3,771 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 18 $7,140 −$7,140 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $6,724 −$6,724 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 18 $5,303 −$5,303 -100%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) Jun 18 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Map Handicap: CGN (-1.5) vs RIZON (+1.5) Jun 18 $6,941 −$6,941 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - CCT South America Serie Jun 18 $5,384 −$5,384 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $4,631 −$4,631 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $9,450 −$9,450 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5,388 −$5,388 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6,360 −$6,360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 18 $7,822 −$7,822 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 18 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14,681 −$14,681 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 18 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Miami Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $651 −$651 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $9,300 −$9,300 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 18 $4,121 −$4,121 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 18 $7,519 −$7,519 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 18 $4,716 −$4,716 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 18 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $2,284 −$2,284 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5) Jun 18 $4,584 −$4,584 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $8,306 −$8,306 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $6,241 −$6,241 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $10,680 −$10,680 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,385 −$2,385 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $7,350 −$7,350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 18 $7,950 −$7,950 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $7,026 −$7,026 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Pla Jun 18 $1,424 −$1,424 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $364 −$364 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,460 −$4,460 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,024 −$2,024 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 18 $617 −$617 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $9,540 +$11,560 +121%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,127 −$6,042 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $8,045 +$8,244 +102%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,419 −$2,391 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $573 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $6,166 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $774 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $2,496 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $1 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $122 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $423 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $1,101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $3,230 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $271 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $1,546 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $229 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $508 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $414 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $209 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $1,050 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $881 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,290 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4,837 16h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $4,574 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $1,297 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $805 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $716 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $940 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $1,208 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $291 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $219 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,096.75 · official $76,096.75 (match) · 3500 history records