trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 67% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 47% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 47% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 54% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $48 | $48 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $33 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $48 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 04 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 01 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 31 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $48 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $32 | +$3 | +9% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $49 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 25 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in March? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | -3% |
| Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? | Mar 28 | $14 | $0 | +1% |