Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x976d…f996 crypto 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$639 (+18%) realized +$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate74%232W / 82L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$187
14 days+$104
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$276
other 9% +$351
politics 4% −$29
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +15.4% +4.4% 82% 82% +2.9%
≤30d 302 +3.6% -6.3% 76% 73% -3.9%
≤90d 314 +8.9% -1.5% 74% 71% +2.7%
all 314 +8.9% -1.5% 74% 71% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 71% +2.7%
10% -10.9% 54% -7.1%
15% -19.5% 36% -16.1%
20% -27.4% 18% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses232 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)314 / 314
History coverage77d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 314 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 592 history records