Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x976a…e8ec sports 1049 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17,609 (+30%) realized +$17,654 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%491W / 539L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day184.4pace
Fees−$704est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,799
other 14% +$1,193
crypto 1% +$405
world 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 +23.1% +11.4% 50% 48% -2.0%
≤30d 1030 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 46% -1.2%
≤90d 1030 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 46% -1.2%
all 1030 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 46% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 46% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.1% 41% -10.6%
15% -12.5% 34% -19.3%
20% -21.1% 29% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3,973
Realized+$17,654
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses491 / 539
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$704
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1030 / 1049
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day184.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $313 $394 +$81 (+26%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 46¢ $204 $191 −$13 (-6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $109 $92 −$17 (-15%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 14¢ $67 $79 +$12 (+18%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 22¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $43 $50 +$6 (+15%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 69¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+74%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 1¢ 17¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+1605%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+1011%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-6%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 20¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 83¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 14¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Under 3¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1315%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? No 49¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$35 +34%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $59 +$73 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $77 +$82 +106%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$25 -48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $66 +$53 +80%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $319 −$31 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $46 +$13 +29%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 +$30 +29%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $227 −$165 -72%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $341 −$339 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +474%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$125 +112%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $28 +$22 +82%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $14 +$42 +297%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $180 +$15 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $84 +$24 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $11 +$4 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,009 +$423 +42%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $109 +$116 +106%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $97 +$15 +16%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $220 −$120 -54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $73 +$49 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $97 −$20 -20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $218 +$66 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $236 −$121 -51%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 −$64 -63%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $361 +$335 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $39 −$27 -68%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $32 +$46 +142%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 17 $22 +$29 +129%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $234 −$231 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 2¢ $3 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 5¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 64¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 40¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $47 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $5 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $18 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 82¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 82¢ $93 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 51¢ $45 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,973.30 · official $3,971.46 (match) · 3500 history records