Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9768…07c0
crypto · 116 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$68 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 59
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage224d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3 $0 +11%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $19 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $1 +$2 +248%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 -7%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 23 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $1 +$3 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Mar 23 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% −$21
crypto 25% −$18
politics 24% −$17
other 15% −$17
finance 2% +$2
world 2% +$4
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 23d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 42% -26.8%
≤30d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 64 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 31% -25.9%
all 111 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 37% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 37% -29.1%
10% -32.2% 32% -35.9%
15% -38.7% 23% -42.1%
20% -44.7% 12% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.41 (match) · 345 history records