Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9761…9070 sports 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$590 (-2%) realized −$585 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%310W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$15
14 days−$356
30 days−$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$428
other 13% −$144
crypto 4% −$102
politics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 27% -10.0%
≤30d 202 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 19% -11.7%
≤90d 386 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 28% -11.3%
all 408 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 29% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 29% -11.3%
10% -20.5% 10% -19.8%
15% -28.2% 5% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$28 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses310 / 98
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)408 / 410
History coverage322d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $92 −$6 -7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $153 +$3 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $86 −$22 -26%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $250 +$3 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 −$42 -59%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$20 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$4 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $170 +$7 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $30 −$5 -17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $150 +$3 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 +$15 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$19 -63%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $55 +$16 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $25 −$2 -9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 +$8 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$6 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $150 +$9 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$10 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$4 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $146 −$15 -10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$40 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $109 −$68 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$12 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$25 -25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $56 −$10 -18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 −$198 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $91 −$31 -34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $150 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $86 53m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 53m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $91 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $21 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $24 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $18 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $153 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $46 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $250 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $24 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 18¢ $29 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 42¢ $71 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 96¢ $70 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 55¢ $25 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $150 41h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 9¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $36 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.90 · official $74.90 (match) · 952 history records