Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x975c…15ea crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-45%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.1% -57.5% 29% 14% -53.8%
≤30d 7 -53.1% -57.5% 29% 14% -53.8%
≤90d 7 -53.1% -57.5% 29% 14% -53.8%
all 7 -53.1% -57.5% 29% 14% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 14% -53.8%
10% -61.6% 14% -58.2%
15% -65.3% 14% -62.3%
20% -68.7% 14% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records