Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x975b…149b crypto 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,472 (-4%) realized −$1,983 · open +$511
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%184W / 149L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$121
14 days+$104
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,569
sports 20% +$1,622
world 11% −$461
culture 6% −$1,512
crypto 5% +$288
tech 4% +$278
politics 1% −$83
weather 0% −$27
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.2% -16.1% 80% 40% -2.3%
≤30d 48 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 38% -0.5%
≤90d 140 -21.8% -29.2% 49% 32% -8.3%
all 333 -12.3% -20.6% 55% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 43% -15.5%
10% -28.2% 35% -23.6%
15% -35.2% 29% -30.9%
20% -41.5% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$68 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$5,153
Realized−$1,983
Unrealized+$511
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses184 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions33
Markets (closed)333 / 366
History coverage421d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 77¢ 88¢ $2,993 $3,419 +$427 (+14%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $560 $558 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 66¢ 96¢ $200 $291 +$91 (+46%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $76 $91 +$15 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 82¢ $83 $78 −$5 (-6%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 77¢ 82¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 78¢ 87¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+6%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $31 $39 +$8 (+26%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 52¢ $48 $37 −$11 (-23%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 70¢ $40 $35 −$6 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+18%)
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 71¢ 80¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 81¢ 66¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 67¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 53¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $240 +$26 +11%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $60 +$17 +27%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $70 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $60 +$7 +12%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $43 +$4 +8%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $64 +$15 +24%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $87 +$5 +6%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $60 +$7 +11%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +7%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $106 −$103 -97%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $41 +$15 +37%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $244 +$143 +59%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $139 +$53 +38%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $28 −$27 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 04 $54 −$10 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 04 $75 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $75 +$5 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $117 +$129 +110%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $92 +$26 +28%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 01 $74 −$29 -38%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 31 $165 +$83 +50%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $16 +$20 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $135 +$12 +9%
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9? May 25 $112 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $87 +$25 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Snake" in May? May 23 $2 +$4 +223%
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on May 22? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of May 18 May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of th May 21 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 21? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $123 $0 +0%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $101 +$27 +27%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 20? May 19 $8 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY No 52¢ $8 4h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 8h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 9h
Will MrBeast say "Darius" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 2d
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will MrBeast say "Survive" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 66¢ $202 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $339 2d
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $60 2d
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $240 3d
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $28 3d
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 5d
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 5d
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 5d
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 5d
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 5d
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 95¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,153.20 · official $5,153.21 (match) · 1117 history records