Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9753…9d8f other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+0%) realized +$201 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate74%98W / 34L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$629per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$760
14 days−$167
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$346
tech 30% +$571
sports 19% −$480
finance 12% +$706
world 4% −$779
politics 2% +$15
crypto 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -34.8% -41.0% 55% 27% -16.3%
≤30d 85 -5.7% -14.7% 79% 16% -9.4%
≤90d 89 -5.1% -14.1% 80% 17% -8.3%
all 132 -7.0% -15.9% 74% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 18% -9.1%
10% -23.9% 9% -17.8%
15% -31.3% 5% -25.7%
20% -38.0% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$519) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$131 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$814
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses98 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage345d
Avg bet$629
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $806 $814 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$30 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $775 +$83 +11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $488 +$12 +2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $487 +$13 +3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,093 +$128 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,051 −$1,042 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $217 −$18 -8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $603 +$78 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $487 +$127 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $335 +$73 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $482 +$140 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 13 $266 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $1,928 +$72 +4%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $35 +$10 +30%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3 +$4 +117%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $5,261 +$143 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,601 +$19 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $491 +$18 +4%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1,702 +$24 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $728 +$58 +8%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $49 +$13 +27%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $298 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $401 +$12 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $911 +$37 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 08 $1,068 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 08 $468 +$11 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $31 +$6 +20%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $3,914 +$113 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $816 +$33 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 07 $235 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 07 $500 +$8 +2%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Jun 06 $198 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 06 $5,264 +$77 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $296 +$36 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 04 $220 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $150 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $490 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $16 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $775 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $394 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $94 45h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $487 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $500 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $145 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $365 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $365 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $813.83 · official $813.83 (match) · 683 history records