Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

97 0x974f…17df other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$79 (-17%) realized −$87 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+1.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+11.6%	+1.0%	71%	71%	-28.5%
≤30d	7	+11.6%	+1.0%	71%	71%	-28.5%
≤90d	7	+11.6%	+1.0%	71%	71%	-28.5%
all	7	+11.6%	+1.0%	71%	71%	-28.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.0%	71%	-28.5%
10%	-8.7%	57%	-35.4%
15%	-17.5%	43%	-41.6%
20%	-25.6%	14%	-47.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$97 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$71

Realized−$87

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	88¢	100¢	$62	$71	+$8 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$13	+26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$176	−$173	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$89	+$37	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$26	+$12	+46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$30	+$47	+157%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	+$1	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$63	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$63	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$50	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$126	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$39	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$26	4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$76	4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$19	4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	20¢	$11	4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	17¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.79 · official $70.79 (match) · 17 history records