Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x974c…53d8 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$554 (-6%) realized −$546 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%51W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$42
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$7
other 25% −$389
sports 20% −$214
politics 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 60% +6.7%
≤30d 21 +5.8% -4.3% 33% 33% +11.9%
≤90d 27 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 30% -8.6%
all 172 -10.4% -18.9% 30% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -15.2%
10% -26.7% 24% -23.3%
15% -33.7% 23% -30.7%
20% -40.2% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$26 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$546
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses51 / 121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage568d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Down 9¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $73 −$40 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $94 +$33 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$82 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$160 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$82 +313%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$19 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $200 −$139 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $55 −$35 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $170 +$151 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $60 +$180 +300%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 25 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $25 −$19 -74%
Hornets vs. Hawks Nov 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $55 +$133 +244%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Brian Kilmeade Show on Nov 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30? Sep 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1250 and 1299 times September 1–30? Sep 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1300 and 1349 times September 1–30? Sep 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Troy vs. Buffalo Sep 20 $10 −$7 -71%
Temple vs. Georgia Tech Sep 20 $10 −$6 -64%
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Sep 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 21? Sep 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 21? Sep 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Syracuse vs. Clemson Sep 20 $8 $0 +3%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 9¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $41.67 (match) · 515 history records