Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x974c…de98 crypto 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+2%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%122W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$32
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -40.4% -46.1% 38% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 249 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 33% -12.5%
≤90d 249 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 33% -12.5%
all 249 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 33% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 22% -20.8%
15% -29.1% 16% -28.5%
20% -36.1% 14% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses122 / 127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage25d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 960 history records