Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x974b…076e sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,299 (+4%) realized +$1,271 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$426est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,334
7 days−$733
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,458
world 21% −$1,228
other 2% +$1,326
crypto 2% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +18.2% +6.9% 42% 35% -12.6%
≤30d 44 +26.4% +14.3% 50% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 44 +26.4% +14.3% 50% 45% -5.6%
all 44 +26.4% +14.3% 50% 45% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 45% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 45% -14.6%
15% -6.6% 45% -22.9%
20% -15.8% 41% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$782) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$462 vs −$414 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized+$1,271
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage12d
Avg bet$591
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 48¢ $507 $535 +$28 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,875 −$523 -28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,189 −$990 -83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $960 −$960 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3,329 +$54 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $759 −$759 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $911 +$21 +2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $325 +$975 +300%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,210 +$1,117 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $491 −$488 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,490 +$742 +50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,080 −$399 -37%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $240 +$360 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $536 +$564 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $337 +$763 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,254 −$1,254 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $525 −$517 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $92 +$308 +335%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$538 +525%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $782 +$847 +108%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $299 +$351 +117%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3,085 −$33 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $492 −$492 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $292 −$292 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $159 −$157 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $800 +$1,200 +150%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $105 +$245 +233%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $518 +$652 +126%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $120 +$130 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $377 −$377 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $550 +$572 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $99 +$131 +133%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $244 +$156 +64%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $518 +$248 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$81 +117%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $184 +$116 +63%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $516 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $512 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $4 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $836 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 56¢ $417 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 56¢ $423 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY 11¢ $45 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $152 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $4 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $1 8h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia BUY 13¢ $205 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 8¢ $199 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $1,189 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $447 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $320 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $18 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $27 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $4 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $36 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $9 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $3 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $89 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $1,035 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,383 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $622 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.00 · official $523.97 · 257 history records