Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9748…228c sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+2%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%129W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day93.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$342
7 days−$158
14 days−$199
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$159
other 14% +$39
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 33% -14.2%
≤30d 204 -19.4% -27.1% 50% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 262 -22.7% -30.0% 49% 37% -10.7%
all 262 -22.7% -30.0% 49% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 37% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 26% -19.2%
15% -42.8% 16% -27.0%
20% -48.4% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses129 / 133
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 247
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day93.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 16 $0 +$1 +546%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $5 −$7 -122%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -109%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 +$33 +96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 +$14 +236%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 −$6 -45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $784 −$396 -50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$3 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $22 −$5 -24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$30 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $64 +$5 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 +$21 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$36 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 −$20 -75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$15 -72%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 +$6 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$27 +297%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 +$26 +148%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 +$14 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 +$13 +37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$11 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$8 -27%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $98 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 39m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 40m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $3 41m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $4 43m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 45m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 45m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 46m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $0 50m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 50m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $5 50m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 51m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 51m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 51m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $11 55m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $4 55m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $3 55m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $0 56m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $10 56m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records