Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9748…725a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$1
politics 29% −$1
world 24% +$4
sports 15% +$2
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 0% -9.1%
all 38 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 5% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage269d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 76¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $7 −$2 -26%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$2 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Nov 19 $3 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $6 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 06 $2 $0 +10%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 15h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $28 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 25d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $16 183d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $6 204d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $6 204d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $6 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $6 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $6 204d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $1 204d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $5 204d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 73¢ $7 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.40 · official $29.00 · 151 history records