Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

97 0x9744…75fe other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$14 (-6%) realized −$25 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-49.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-44.6%	-49.9%	50%	50%	-29.8%
≤30d	2	-44.6%	-49.9%	50%	50%	-29.8%
≤90d	2	-44.6%	-49.9%	50%	50%	-29.8%
all	2	-44.6%	-49.9%	50%	50%	-29.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.9%	50%	-29.8%
10%	-54.7%	0%	-36.5%
15%	-59.1%	0%	-42.6%
20%	-63.1%	0%	-48.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$33 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized−$25

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	55¢	61¢	$100	$111	+$11 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$77	+$8	+11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$34	−$33	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	2d
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$34	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	90¢	$77	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.88 · official $130.88 (match) · 7 history records