Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9743…0e64 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$172 (+1%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%36W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$25
world 21% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.8%
all 37 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,030) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses36 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage93d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $224 $224 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $226 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $214 +$11 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $205 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $208 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $207 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $1,053 +$81 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $994 +$42 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 18? Apr 19 $1,047 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? Apr 18 $1,045 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? Apr 16 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,040 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 14? Apr 15 $1,037 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 13? Apr 13 $377 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $1,037 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 12? Apr 13 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 12? Apr 13 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12? Apr 13 $642 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $1,034 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 9? Apr 10 $648 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 8? Apr 09 $1,030 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 6? Apr 06 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 6? Apr 06 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 6? Apr 06 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 05 $494 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3? Apr 03 $1,018 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $928 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $1,015 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1,011 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on March 29? Mar 30 $161 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on March 29? Mar 30 $848 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on March 28? Mar 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 28? Mar 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 28? Mar 29 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 28? Mar 29 $603 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $224 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $226 27d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M BUY No 95¢ $128 36d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M BUY No 95¢ $86 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $152 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $54 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $208 45d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,134 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,053 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 74¢ $1,036 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $25 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $12 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $25 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $11 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $12 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $93 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $5 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $13 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $797 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,047 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,045 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 74d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 75d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $267 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.97 · official $223.97 (match) · 110 history records