Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9743…13c0 world 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$15
world 30% +$5
politics 23% −$30
other 12% +$7
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 0% -9.4%
all 60 +3.9% -6.0% 38% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 13% -9.8%
10% -15.0% 10% -18.4%
15% -23.2% 8% -26.3%
20% -30.8% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage532d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $73 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $46 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $52 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $104 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $90 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $276 +$3 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $283 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $286 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $276 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $306 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Capitals Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 20? Feb 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +30%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $4 $0 -9%
Arizona vs. Baylor Feb 18 $14 +$15 +104%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 17 $5 $0 +10%
Rutgers vs. Oregon Feb 17 $14 +$5 +39%
Binghamton vs. NJIT Feb 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? Feb 14 $3 +$4 +127%
Denver vs. North Dakota Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 22m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 22m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $20 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $14 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $35 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $32 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $7 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $39 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $39 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $38 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.03 · official $28.03 (match) · 222 history records