Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x973f…4815
sports · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$131 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$245
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions16
Markets (closed)42 / 58
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 16 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$94
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 63¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $13 $8 −$5 (-36%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ 78¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? No 68¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 80¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Crest Gaming Zst 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Tundra Esports 69¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 05 $10 +$8 +75%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$3 +56%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $5 +$1 +17%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $5 +$5 +99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $5 +$6 +116%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $31 −$30 -96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Pla May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 30 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $5 $0 -9%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 $0 +6%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs REBORN (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 29 $5 +$5 +103%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North Americ May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 27 $10 +$14 +137%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $14 −$12 -91%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 25 $10 −$9 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$152
other 10% +$15
politics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 59m
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $34 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $41 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 42¢ $41 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $21 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $21 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $75 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 5d
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 5d
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 6d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 49¢ $5 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 17¢ $5 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 63¢ $5 9d
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 73¢ $5 9d
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 45¢ $5 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 40% -76.1%
≤30d 42 -31.2% -37.7% 43% 26% -50.0%
≤90d 42 -31.2% -37.7% 43% 26% -50.0%
all 42 -31.2% -37.7% 43% 26% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 26% -50.0%
10% -43.7% 24% -54.8%
15% -49.1% 24% -59.1%
20% -54.1% 21% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.43 · official $245.43 (match) · 143 history records