Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x973d…e294 other 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$619 (+16%) realized +$619 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 125L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$290
14 days+$518
30 days+$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$441
other 34% −$99
crypto 25% +$179
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 39% +2.7%
≤30d 212 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% +2.9%
≤90d 212 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% +2.9%
all 212 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 38% +2.9%
10% -21.8% 35% -6.9%
15% -29.4% 32% -15.9%
20% -36.3% 29% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 125
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 214
History coverage22d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$16 +54%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$24 +238%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$18 +58%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $71 +$90 +126%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +31%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $32 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 85¢ $43 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $48 13h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $161 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 15h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 15h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 47h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 47h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records