Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9734…19b0 crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-12%) realized −$245 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%49W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$347
other 11% +$16
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +10.1% -0.4% 29% 27% -17.9%
≤30d 51 +10.1% -0.4% 29% 27% -17.9%
≤90d 51 +10.1% -0.4% 29% 27% -17.9%
all 136 -12.4% -20.7% 36% 34% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 34% -26.3%
10% -28.3% 29% -33.4%
15% -35.2% 21% -39.8%
20% -41.6% 15% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses49 / 87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage165d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$31 +303%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $70 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$24 +2218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$20 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $54 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.79 · official $28.79 (match) · 314 history records