Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9734…bfd8 sports 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,548 (-1%) realized −$1,495 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%211W / 150L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$967est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days−$1,356
14 days−$156
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$4,029
other 5% +$1,552
politics 4% +$565
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.8% -22.1% 53% 53% -36.9%
≤30d 74 +3.5% -6.4% 57% 57% -15.4%
≤90d 239 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 56% -12.0%
all 361 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 55% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 55% -10.6%
10% -20.8% 47% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 36% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$224 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$1,495
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses211 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$967
Open positions2
Markets (closed)361 / 363
History coverage583d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 69¢ 89¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 15¢ $116 $34 −$82 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $1,022 +$295 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$108 -53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$84 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $140 +$19 +14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $998 −$998 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$72 -71%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $96 +$44 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$28 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$39 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 +$180 +177%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $203 +$182 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $139 +$65 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$38 +38%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $402 −$61 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 −$159 -79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 12 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $237 +$51 +22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $304 +$161 +53%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$67 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $150 +$171 +114%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $102 +$142 +140%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $202 +$96 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $100 −$7 -7%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $381 +$272 +71%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $304 +$119 +39%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $634 +$125 +20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $452 +$182 +40%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 04 $78 +$25 +32%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 02 $62 +$15 +24%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 31 $301 −$239 -79%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $218 −$23 -10%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 31 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 31 $320 −$174 -54%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $91 −$72 -79%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $95 −$4 -4%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 30 $464 +$100 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $101 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $118 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $1,317 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $1,022 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $83 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $160 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 94¢ $159 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $29 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 17¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $140 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $140 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $96 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 49¢ $95 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 99¢ $129 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $402 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $128 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $78 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $139 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $282 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $102 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $145 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.10 · official $163.10 (match) · 984 history records