Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x9733…f5db other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +75.1% +58.4% 29% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 7 +75.1% +58.4% 29% 29% -5.9%
≤90d 7 +75.1% +58.4% 29% 29% -5.9%
all 7 +75.1% +58.4% 29% 29% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.4% 29% -5.9%
10% +43.3% 29% -14.9%
15% +29.4% 29% -23.1%
20% +16.7% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$54 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $42 $35 −$7 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$149 +837%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $82 −$69 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $71 +$129 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.00 · official $178.00 · 26 history records