Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9733…a066 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$34 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$31
other 46% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 38% -6.6%
≤30d 24 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 54% -4.6%
≤90d 24 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 54% -4.6%
all 24 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 54% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 54% -4.6%
10% -25.3% 50% -13.7%
15% -32.5% 33% -22.0%
20% -39.2% 29% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage19d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 +$12 +24%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 28 $16 −$15 -90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $129 +$22 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$14 +34%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$17 +68%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$13 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $13 +$10 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$5 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $18 +$6 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 36h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 37h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo $2 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $129 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $2 5d
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $15 11d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $13 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $12 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $18 17d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 39¢ $16 17d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.16 · official $65.16 (match) · 42 history records