Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

97 0x9732…fc82 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$474 (+18%) realized +$828 · open −$354

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$443per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+32.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+24.4%
≤30d	5	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+24.4%
≤90d	5	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+24.4%
all	5	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.6%	100%	+24.4%
10%	+19.9%	80%	+12.5%
15%	+8.3%	60%	+1.6%
20%	-2.3%	60%	-8.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$149 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized+$828

Unrealized−$354

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$443

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	41¢	18¢	$650	$296	−$354 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$907	+$104	+11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$509	+$353	+69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$254	+$162	+64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$219	+$69	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$102	+$57	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$154	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$510	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$907	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$509	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$254	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$219	35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$102	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.92 · official $311.91 · 12 history records