Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9730…afbb other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$35
politics 21% −$9
sports 8% +$37
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 +3.4% -6.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 117 +3.4% -6.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -15.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage90d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $424 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $903 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $422 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $436 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $457 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $457 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 25h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $49 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $49 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $46 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records