Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9730…6245 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$363 (-4%) realized −$371 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$209
14 days−$209
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$174
sports 36% −$145
crypto 12% −$14
finance 6% −$58
politics 1% −$8
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 14% -14.9%
≤30d 18 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 6% -21.5%
≤90d 59 -14.2% -22.3% 41% 14% -18.8%
all 84 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 17% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 17% -13.7%
10% -26.9% 11% -22.0%
15% -34.0% 11% -29.5%
20% -40.4% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 46
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage148d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $92 $99 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $802 −$4 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 −$175 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,400 −$16 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$12 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 +$9 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $843 −$43 -5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $286 −$284 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $57 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 27 $50 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $59 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-16? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 17 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 17 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 17 $45 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 17 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $150 +$4 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $97 +$11 +11%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May? May 09 $42 −$3 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 09 $80 −$1 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 09 $121 −$8 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 09 $0 $0 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 09 $74 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 09 $84 −$10 -12%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 02 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $95 +$12 +13%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) May 02 $138 +$1 +1%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $156 +$17 +11%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? May 01 $31 −$6 -20%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -90%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $33 +$1 +2%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $83 −$13 -16%
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? Apr 08 $95 +$2 +3%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $0 +$1 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $798 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $67 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $802 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $178 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 69¢ $690 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $100 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $92 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $323 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $330 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $122 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $79 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $700 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $694 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $700 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $23 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $33 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $28 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $494 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $289 2d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 32¢ $33 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 84¢ $253 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.45 · official $99.45 (match) · 353 history records