Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x972f…65bd sports 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,674 (+5%) realized +$17,678 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%395W / 291L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$3,093est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,249
7 days+$1,998
14 days+$6,029
30 days+$14,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$7,468
other 21% +$9,571
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +19.6% +8.2% 63% 63% -4.4%
≤30d 221 +9.4% -1.0% 61% 59% -1.0%
≤90d 686 +3.1% -6.8% 58% 56% -4.7%
all 686 +3.1% -6.8% 58% 56% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 56% -4.7%
10% -15.7% 53% -13.8%
15% -23.8% 49% -22.1%
20% -31.3% 37% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$591) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$313 vs −$367 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$17,678
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses395 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$3,093
Open positions1
Markets (closed)686 / 687
History coverage88d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 38¢ $298 $294 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,471 −$104 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $584 +$566 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $604 +$146 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $129 −$126 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,517 +$864 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $300 −$294 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $2,024 +$1,350 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,412 −$1,397 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,615 +$597 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $510 −$338 -66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $300 +$178 +59%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $198 +$192 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $501 +$297 +59%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $906 −$896 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $470 −$466 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $198 +$163 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $181 −$75 -41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$284 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $301 +$403 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $297 +$117 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $300 +$342 +114%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $412 +$302 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $175 −$174 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $197 +$446 +226%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $203 +$241 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $529 +$199 +38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $703 −$695 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $600 −$595 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $254 −$206 -81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $201 +$238 +118%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $103 −$101 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $298 +$491 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $758 +$413 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $604 +$358 +59%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $659 +$284 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $223 −$166 -74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $304 +$222 +73%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $303 +$173 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $493 −$14 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $396 +$301 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $304 +$283 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $333 +$395 +118%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $906 −$894 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $789 −$49 -6%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $506 +$241 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $303 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $459 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 73¢ $1,810 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $129 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $604 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2,012 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $584 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $300 11h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $3,375 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $1,517 13h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $2,024 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 57¢ $1,519 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,412 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,212 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 11¢ $173 31h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $510 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,518 33h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,615 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $479 34h
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) SELL Legacy 100¢ $390 35h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $798 35h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $906 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $300 37h
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY Legacy 50¢ $198 38h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $501 38h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $470 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $361 39h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 17¢ $106 39h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $586 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.18 · official $294.18 (match) · 1356 history records