Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
97 0x972d…b581 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$142 (+27%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$283
other 13% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.0% +1.4% 44% 44% +48.9%
≤30d 9 +12.0% +1.4% 44% 44% +48.9%
≤90d 9 +12.0% +1.4% 44% 44% +48.9%
all 9 +12.0% +1.4% 44% 44% +48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 44% +48.9%
10% -8.3% 44% +34.7%
15% -17.2% 44% +21.7%
20% -25.3% 44% +9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$22 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $91 +$49 +54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-0 Jun 18 $29 +$79 +272%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$188 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $34 −$33 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records