Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x972c…9492 crypto 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 163d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,144 (-16%) realized −$2,684 · open −$460
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,666per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$371
14 days+$371
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$2,587
world 10% −$533
crypto 7% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.5%
≤30d 1 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.5%
≤90d 1 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.5%
all 11 -20.8% -28.3% 36% 36% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 36% -25.6%
10% -35.2% 27% -32.7%
15% -41.5% 18% -39.2%
20% -47.2% 0% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$514 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$3,653
Realized−$2,684
Unrealized−$460
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,666
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,113 $3,653 −$460 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,859 +$371 +20%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $372 −$372 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $394 −$231 -58%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 23 $10,668 −$2,498 -23%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $354 −$236 -67%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $792 +$306 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 07 $336 +$84 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $126 −$66 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 11? Jan 06 $370 −$60 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $77 +$29 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $411 −$132 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,224 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,230 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,859 21d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $973 21d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 21d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $144 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $14 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $1 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $1 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $0 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes $9 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes $164 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $54 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 144d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,652.61 · official $3,652.61 (match) · 202 history records