Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x972b…78ba other 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (940 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$176,588 (+109%) realized +$176,447 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$1,487per market
Trades / day940.2pace
Fees−$568est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$20,808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$5,055
sports 35% +$10,034
crypto 3% −$2,842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (940 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +9.6% -0.8% 66% 52% -1.8%
≤30d 67 +9.6% -0.8% 66% 52% -1.8%
≤90d 67 +9.6% -0.8% 66% 52% -1.8%
all 67 +9.6% -0.8% 66% 52% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover940.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 52% -1.8%
10% -10.3% 40% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -19.0% 19% -19.8%
20% -26.9% 16% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$3,436) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
31.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$795 vs −$995 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20,808
Realized+$176,447
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$568
Open positions61
Markets (closed)67 / 109
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$1,487
Trades / day940.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 50¢ $5,036 $4,961 −$75 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 48¢ 50¢ $3,092 $3,200 +$108 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 36¢ 36¢ $3,189 $3,160 −$29 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 77¢ 80¢ $1,367 $1,403 +$36 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 50¢ $1,165 $1,100 −$65 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 50¢ $1,069 $1,079 +$10 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 59¢ 64¢ $488 $525 +$37 (+8%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $516 $506 −$10 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $482 $479 −$4 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $346 $416 +$70 (+20%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 35¢ 36¢ $392 $401 +$9 (+2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $346 $348 +$2 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $348 $347 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $306 $310 +$5 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $262 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $253 $247 −$7 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $242 $240 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 70¢ $218 $223 +$5 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 36¢ 40¢ $130 $147 +$16 (+12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? No 68¢ 100¢ $86 $126 +$40 (+46%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $102 $114 +$13 (+12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 20¢ 18¢ $123 $107 −$16 (-13%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $91 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $0 $0 +144%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $395 +$3 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7,121 +$1,873 +26%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $150 +$48 +32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,281 +$243 +19%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $1,338 +$396 +30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,103 +$21 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $954 +$2,240 +235%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $633 +$883 +139%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,035 +$3,753 +74%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $4,361 +$130 +3%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$5 +144%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $655 −$31 -5%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$21 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $261 −$387 -148%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $509 +$160 +31%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $440 +$147 +33%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $450 +$47 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,417 −$2,751 -80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $737 −$737 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $7,951 +$2,243 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7,936 −$2,169 -27%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $342 +$72 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $426 +$38 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9,315 +$994 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,425 +$395 +16%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,252 +$563 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,508 −$2,839 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,378 +$1,122 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,147 +$378 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $2,837 +$1,248 +44%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 20 $18 +$2 +10%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $395 −$279 -71%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $214 +$7 +3%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $1,664 −$339 -20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,579 −$3,079 -41%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $362 −$79 -22%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $1,038 −$412 -40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $866 −$581 -67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,457 −$2,245 -65%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,983 +$734 +37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,738 +$464 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $1,722 +$331 +19%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,750 +$1,058 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 59¢ $3 2m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 64¢ $3 2m
BUY 86¢ $4 22m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $4 23m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $1 34m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 65¢ $3 34m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $12 38m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $22 38m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $115 39m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $12 39m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $4 41m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $4 41m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $22 42m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $22 44m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $17 44m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $56 46m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 61¢ $3 48m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $23 49m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $12 49m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $12 49m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $12 50m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 62¢ $3 52m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $10 53m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 95¢ $5 1h
BUY 62¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,808.45 · official $20,808.28 (match) · 3500 history records