Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9728…e944 weather 477 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+6%) realized +$86 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%354W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$35
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$110
sports 9% −$45
crypto 6% −$14
other 4% +$172
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 8% -5.3%
≤30d 422 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 10% -7.6%
≤90d 422 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 10% -7.6%
all 422 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 10% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 10% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 7% -16.4%
15% -29.5% 5% -24.5%
20% -36.4% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses354 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions55
Markets (closed)422 / 477
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 60¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 80¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 72¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) New Zealand 91¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
New Zealand leading at halftime? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 75¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Houston Astros 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 17¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 +$171 +982%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $1 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $1 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 65¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.27 · official $120.44 (match) · 1063 history records