Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9727…295a other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$13
politics 20% −$5
sports 6% +$15
economics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +1.9% -7.8% 11% 8% -9.5%
all 103 +1.9% -7.8% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage87d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $405 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $399 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +3%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $369 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $384 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 15h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $74 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.21 · official $180.25 (match) · 313 history records