Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9726…1b0d weather 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$422 (-3%) realized −$423 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate57%262W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$767
7 days−$759
14 days−$802
30 days−$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$277
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.3% -22.4% 83% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 45 -6.3% -15.2% 89% 2% -11.1%
≤90d 460 -15.1% -23.2% 57% 8% -12.8%
all 460 -15.1% -23.2% 57% 8% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 8% -12.8%
10% -30.6% 3% -21.1%
15% -37.3% 1% -28.7%
20% -43.4% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses262 / 198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)460 / 399
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $212 $213 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24? Jun 21 $3 −$5 -218%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on March Jun 21 $3 −$6 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc Jun 21 $1 −$1 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Jun 21 $4 −$8 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C or below on April 2? Jun 21 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 26? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1? Jun 21 $3 −$6 -200%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4 Jun 21 $8 −$16 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30? Jun 21 $3 −$6 -208%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 24? Jun 21 $15 −$30 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on Marc Jun 21 $4 −$9 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 1? Jun 21 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26? Jun 21 $15 −$30 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27? Jun 21 $15 −$30 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 30? Jun 21 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on Marc Jun 21 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29 Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 25? Jun 21 $16 −$32 -200%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 25? Jun 21 $0 $0 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on March 27? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 28? Jun 21 $8 −$15 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30? Jun 21 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 1? Jun 21 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 30? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 25? Jun 21 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Jun 21 $3 −$6 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on March 28? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26? Jun 21 $4 −$8 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on March 29 Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 25? Jun 21 $15 −$30 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 1? Jun 21 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 25? Jun 21 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 26? Jun 21 $8 −$16 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 1? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 27? Jun 21 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2? Jun 21 $3 −$5 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 3? Jun 21 $0 −$1 -201%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on March 27? Jun 21 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 27? Jun 21 $1 −$3 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $31 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 91¢ $25 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $46 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $46 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $46 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $60 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $47 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $53 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $42 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $7 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $53 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $30 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.36 · official $215.36 (match) · 3500 history records