Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9725…24a9 crypto 1821 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,055 (+2%) realized +$1,055 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate69%1251W / 568L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$74
14 days+$151
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 70% -1.0%
≤30d 99 +4.0% -5.9% 80% 78% -0.9%
≤90d 503 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 78% -6.6%
all 1819 +1.3% -8.4% 69% 68% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 68% -8.8%
10% -17.1% 61% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 41% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 18% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$35 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,055
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1251 / 568
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1819 / 1821
History coverage122d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1819 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$14 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$15 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$17 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $65 +$32 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $34 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $75 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $28 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3230 history records