Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9724…fada
other · 23 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$5 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 48¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? Yes 28¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Yes 17¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $4 +$4 +88%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 23 $5 +$4 +78%
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $3 +$4 +143%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $3 +$2 +74%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 19 $2 −$1 -34%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Caijsa Hennemann May 19 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4 +$4 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% +$7
sports 23% +$1
crypto 16% +$1
world 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 14d
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 14d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 18d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 18d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18d
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 19d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 20d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 20d
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever BUY Portland Fire 21¢ $2 22d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $3 22d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tommy Paul 56¢ $3 23d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 24d
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League SELL Yes 13¢ $1 24d
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Caijsa Hennemann BUY Janice Tjen 65¢ $4 25d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.4% -68.7% 25% 25% -66.8%
≤30d 22 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 55% -4.6%
≤90d 22 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 55% -4.6%
all 22 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 55% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 55% -4.6%
10% -13.8% 55% -13.8%
15% -22.2% 55% -22.1%
20% -29.8% 50% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 42 history records